Liverpool vs. Manchester City
Even though their Premier League total match goal average has been higher than any other team’s around 3.3 over the past two seasons, they still suffer from the early kick-off curse of low goal totals. Only one of their 16 Saturday lunchtime kickoffs has seen more than 3.5 goals scored, and that game in question has averaged just 2.25 goals.
It would surprise me if Jurgen Klopp allowed his Liverpool team, which has lost 11 of their 20 away games this season across all competitions, to attack City with the same high intensity as usual. They will need to play smart, just like they did in the other game at Anfield, where they won 1-0 thanks to a more reserved and solid defense. Phil Foden, who has scored 15 of City’s last 21 goals, and Erling Haaland’s absence increase the likelihood of a low-scoring match as well.
SCORE GUARANTEE: 2-3
Arsenal vs. Leeds
Arsenal’s defensive metrics before and after the World Cup break indicate that their defense is becoming a little more vulnerable. Their number of shots on target faced has also increased from 2.6 per-90 to 3.85 per-90, while their expected goals against has increased from 0.85 per-90 to 1.1 per-90. With only six clean sheets in their last 18 games across all competitions, the Gunners are making it easier for teams to create quality chances.
Their attack is capable of scoring two or more goals every game, so it may not matter in the race for the title. However, this slight decrease in defensive numbers may be an opportunity to take advantage of when it comes to opponents’ players, shots, and goal prices, especially with William Saliba out with an injury.
SCORE GUARANTEE: 3-1
Bournemouth vs. Fulham
Bournemouth is the favorite in the betting markets to beat ninth-place Fulham, who have scored 15 more goals than the Cherries have this season. Willian and Aleksandar Mitrovic’s suspensions for their respective red cards at Manchester United account for a significant portion of the market’s support, but I wouldn’t bet against Fulham’s chances in this one.
Importantly, Joao Palhinha is back, a player who, in my opinion, is rapidly emerging as the Premier League’s best midfielder outside of the top seven teams.
As usual, Fulham will be difficult to beat with him watching things as exhibited by their record of losing just two times this season from 19 apparatuses against groups outside the main five in the Chief Association.
SCORE Expectation: 1-2
Brighton versus Brentford
Brighton and Brentford may be locked together on 42 focuses with eyes on an European experience however only one of those groups are serious players as per the business sectors. As the money continues to pour in on Brighton each week, their price has risen to a level typically associated with a team vying for a place in the top four. Brighton is favored to win. In fact, they are exactly that, with odds of just 4/1 that they will qualify for the Champions League and 4/6 that they will finish in the top six. This club is rapidly expanding.
SCORE GUARANTEE: 2-0
Crystal Palace vs. Leicester
Crystal Palace has been in 12th place for 88 days, and they’ve hired the right person to keep them there. During his first season in charge, Palace finished in the 11th, 12th, 14th, and 14th positions, respectively.
Football isn’t it just riveting at times?
This team is more than capable of winning games because eight of their remaining 10 games are against teams in the bottom half and they play five of the current bottom six at home during the run-in. Hodgson will undoubtedly be the secure pair of hands that Steve Parish was looking for. Any team in the relegation picture has the easiest start.
Leicester has the players to take a team’s game away from them in a short period of time and can turn it on and off like a tap. In seven attempts, Hodgson has never defeated a team managed by Brendan Rodgers. Therefore, it is a melancholy draw, with Palace maintaining their impressive hold on 12th.
SCORE GUARANTEE: 1-1
Wolves vs. Nottingham Forest:
Morgan Gibbs-White is a very talented player. also a serious speaker, as the aforementioned quotes demonstrate. When it comes to Wolves, the team he had called home since he was eight years old, he has been content to open up and let his feelings run wild on the field.
The FA filed charges against both Wolves and Forest for a brawl that occurred at the conclusion of their Carabao Cup match. Wolves manager Julen Lopetegui was criticized for confronting Gibbs-White, who was celebrating in front of the Wolves fans with his fingers in his ears.
However, I’m getting greedy and will concentrate on Gibbs-White as the primary catalyst for the game’s revival. This season, he has two shots per 90 in home games, scoring twice against a background of 3.12 expected goals, indicating a poor performance in terms of chance quality.
SCORE GUARANTEE: 1-1
Chelsea vs. Aston Villa
Graham Potter has undoubtedly discovered a more secure formula in recent weeks; however, there is still a lack of ruthlessness in both boxes, making Chelsea vulnerable.
Betting on Emiliano Martinez to be sent off when Villa are expected to win on the road is a smart way to get a great price. He is 9/1 for a card at Stamford Scaffold and has been reserved multiple times in the Chief Association this season for timewasting shenanigans – no goalkeeper has been endorsed more times for that offense this season.
SCORE Forecast: 3-2
West Ham versus Southampton, Sunday
The worth lies in the goalscorer markets where I’m anticipating that West Ham should set out open doors from set-pieces. It’s only a matter of time before West Ham find a way through because the foundation of a successful Moyes team revolves around their dominance at scoring from corners and free-kicks. Although West Ham has only scored four goals from such situations this season, their expected goals from set-pieces is double that number. Given that they have won 24 of their last two games at home, they should also get a lot of corners.
Defending set-pieces is notoriously difficult for Southampton, which has conceded 11 goals this season, more than Bournemouth. What’s more, the arrangement of Ruben Selles hasn’t improved the situation in such manner either, as since he accepted the position Holy people have surrendered two times from corners to a setting of 2.56 worth of anticipated objectives – the most terrible record of any group in that period.
SCORE GUARANTEE: 1-0
Manchester United and Newcastle United, Sunday
Manchester United and Newcastle United will be a 2-0 affair. Given that the goal total for this game appears to be too high, the play will have to be against goals.
At this point in the season, betting under goals pays off because games tend to be tighter and teams play with less freedom when so much is at stake.
This season, Newcastle has scored just 1.9 goals per 90 minutes in 10 games against Brighton and the “big six,” with seven games falling under the 2.5 goals mark and three games ending 0-0. Due to Manchester United’s absence of key player Casemiro, a draw at St. James’ Park will undoubtedly be viewed favorably by Erik ten Hag; consequently, a cautious approach is anticipated from Manchester United. In a game with few goals scored, Newcastle can win.
SCORE GUARANTEE: 1-2
Everton vs. Tottenham on Monday
There is a unique atmosphere for a night game at the great old ground, which should be taken into account when weighing the odds of the match’s outcome. Everton has won 12 of their last 13 Monday night games at Goodison Park. The only loss came in a 1-0 loss to Liverpool, which was won by Sadio Mane in the final minute. Everton won eight of those 13 matches, including against Manchester United in 2012 and Arsenal in 2021 as underdogs.
Even though the Goodison Park factor makes a strong case, the current Tottenham crisis makes the pro-Everton view a very strong one to consider at the prices.
SCORE GUARANTEE: 1-0